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ecológica por mínimos quadrados ponderados entre seções eleitorais do 1º turno de 2026, por estado e por dimensão (gênero, idade, escolaridade) separadamente. Seção s: y_s = Flávio/(Flávio+Lula); w_sg = participação do grupo g no eleitorado apto (perfil do eleitorado por seção do TSE, códigos não informados excluídos); peso v_s = votos Flávio+Lula. Modelo y_s = sum_g w_sg p_g. (1) Diferenças entre grupos: estimadas só com a variação entre seções da mesma unidade local (município x zona, a unidade do simulador), com efeito fixo da unidade. A regressão restrita agrupada (sem efeito fixo) confunde composição com geografia: no país inteiro ela dá mulheres mais favoráveis a Flávio do que homens e superior 20 p.p. acima da pesquisa; ela é mantida nos diagnósticos ('pooled_spec'). (2) Incerteza: bootstrap de municípios (200 réplicas; no DF, de zonas) mais um termo de viés ecológico = |diferença do grupo na regressão agrupada - diferença com efeito fixo|; nos estados, o termo de viés não fica abaixo do medido no nacional para o mesmo grupo (o viés ecológico de uma dimensão não diminui com o tamanho do estado); onde a especificação muda muito o resultado (gênero, 16-24 anos), os dados pesam pouco. (3) Encolhimento: a estimativa local (variância se^2 + viés^2) é combinada com a prior (variância tau^2) por scipy.optimize.lsq_linear com p_g em [0.03, 0.97]. Estados: tau = 0.05; prior = estimativa nacional final deslocada no logit para reproduzir o resultado do estado (encolhe a forma, não o nível); RR, AP e AC têm poucos municípios, bootstrap largo e por isso ficam perto da forma nacional. Nacional: todas as seções, inclusive exterior; tau = 0.04; prior = PoderData/Aya 5-7/10/2026 (2º turno, Flávio/(Flávio+Lula) dos pares publicados), deslocada no logit para o resultado nacional do 1º turno; 25-44 anos usado para a25_34 e a35_44; e_fund combina 'nunca foi à escola' (peso 25.9%, participação dos códigos 1-2 do TSE dentro de 1-4) e 'fundamental'. (4) Calibração: deslocamento comum no logit de todos os p_g do estado para que a soma ponderada pela composição do eleitorado apto do estado reproduza a participação real de Flávio. p é a participação de Flávio no voto de dois partidos do 1º turno, supondo comparecimento igual entre grupos dentro da seção; é estimativa ecológica sujeita a viés de contexto, não medida individual. Gender: national gap shifted to each state's level."}}